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What are the odds?

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As designers we frequently make presentations of multiple design concepts and ask clients to choose the best solution. But can we predict which design concept will be selected?

Monty Hall from the game show “Let’s Make a Deal,” used to show three doors; there would be a new car behind one door and goats behind the other two. The contestant would choose Door 1, and Monty Hall would open Door 2 revealing a goat and ask the contestant if he wanted to switch to Door 3.

Most people cling to their original choice. But what answer has the best probability of winning? John Tierney of the New York Times explains it best:

This answer goes against our intuition that, with two unopened doors left, the odds are 50-50 that the car is behind one of them. But when you stick with Door 1, you’ll win only if your original choice was correct, which happens only 1 in 3 times on average. If you switch, you’ll win whenever your original choice was wrong, which happens 2 out of 3 times.

Can we trick the client into selecting the concept we want? Maybe. But if the solution is not grounded in meeting the project objectives it will eventually fail.

What we need to do is to examine the one that best meets the objectives of the project, then make refinements. This process may lead to a variation or even a new concept, but it’s not based on more choices, it’s based on finding the best way to communicate your brand.

The Montey Hall problem.
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Langton Creative Group is a NY communications design firm dedicated to improving the way businesses and organizations interact with their audiences. We were founded as Langton Cherubino Group in 1990.

29 McKinley Place
Ardsley, NY 10502
212-533-2585